West Ham are in desperate need of a striker. It’s all gone a bit wrong since their move to the London Stadium and there is no clear first choice forward for the Hammers.
So it’s no real surprise to see Brentford striker Scott Hogan linked with a move across London.
After a £10million pound deal was rejected, the East London club are set to up their bid and on this week’s edition of Football Whispers TV, it was picked out as our Deal of the Day.
Jermain Defoe seemed to be the first-choice option, but with Sunderland unwilling to sell on the cheap, the Hammers have turned their attention to Hogan, who as, co-chairman David Gold pointed out, at 24, could still have a good sell-on value in the future.
How much do you think you could sell Defoe for when he’s 36? dg https://t.co/0aFF6ZCbfi
— David Gold (@davidgold) January 9, 2017
West Ham are thought to have already had two bids turned down for the forward, who has scored 14 goals in the Championship this season.
But how does his form in the first half of the season statistically compare to the Hammers’ striking options?
Hogan gets the goals
If you’re looking at strikers, the first thing most people will think about is ‘how many goals does he get?’
Needless to say, Hogan is a goalscorer.
The Brentford man’s 14 league goals work out at 0.58 goals per 90 minutes he plays – which is higher than anyone in the West Ham team.
Of course, he is playing in the league below, but no Hammers player comes close.
If you compare him with West Ham’s main striking options over the first half of the season, the oft-injured Andy Carroll’s two league goals work out at a strike rate of 0.55 goals per game.
The only Hammers player to get anywhere near him in terms of goals is Michail Antonio, although it’s hard to judge the Englishman properly as a forward as he has played in so many positions this year.
Antonio has eight league goals so far this campaign – which works out at 0.44 per 90 minutes.
The other main options over the first few months of the season were Ashley Fletcher and the soon-to-be departed Simone Zaza.
Neither of them have managed a league goal yet.
Hogan is a poacher
The Brentford striker takes nearly all of his shots from inside the box.
He averages 2.62 shots from inside the area per 90 minutes.
That’s higher than any of West Ham’s main striking options, with Carroll on 1.76, Antonio on 2.15, Zaza on 2.14 and Fletcher on 1.41.
Hogan has got a pretty good chance of testing the goalkeeper too – 69 per cent of his efforts are on target.
That’s higher than any of Carroll (36 per cent), Antonio (45 per cent), Fletcher (43 per cent) or Zaza (22 per cent).
The 24-year-old is unlikely to get West Ham goals from outside the box though.
He averages just 0.17 shots from outside the area per 90 minutes – Carroll (0.88), Antonio (0.83), Zaza (0.97) and Fletcher (0.56) have averaged considerably more.
Carroll is still the king with his head
If West Ham fans are hoping for someone who can rival Carroll in the air, Hogan isn’t their man.
He wins just 24.4 per cent of his aerial duels. That’s worse than Antonio (34 per cent), Zaza (50 per cent) and Fletcher (33.3 percent).
Unsurprisingly it is Carroll who has the best percentage of aerial duels won with 62.50 per cent.
But, if Hogan signs, it will be good for West Ham boss Slaven Bilic to have players with strengths in different areas.
Will Hogan create chances too?
In the five strikers we have looked at, Hogan is the only one to register an assist this season – albeit that is just one in 24 games.
Out of the out-and out-strikers – he has created the most this season, in 15. Only Antonio (17) has created more.
But if you work it out per 90 minutes, the Salford-born forward has created the fewest chances.
His 0.62 chances created every 90 minutes is considerably lower than Antonio (0.94), Carroll (1.06), Fletcher (1.12) and Zaza (1.56).
But what West Ham need isn’t a creator, it’s someone to get them goals and based on this season, he’ll definitely offer more to them in that area than what they have had so far this season.
The Hammers will be aware of his injury record – he suffered two anterior ligament injuries which meant it took him until March 2016 to make his home league debut for Brentford after signing in the summer of 2014.
And should he stay injury free – he could very well emulate former Halifax teammate Jamie Vardy and be a Premier League success.